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Released:2024-06-24
Since the last edition of Statistics Canada's population projections for Canada, provinces and territories, released in2022, Canada's demographic landscape has evolved substantially: population growth has accelerated following many permanent and temporary immigrants coming to the country, fertility has reached a record-low level in2022, and life expectancy has decreased for three years in a row (from2020to2022).
Today, Statistics Canada has released a new set of projections for Canada (2023to2073) and for the provinces and territories (2023to2048). These projections include several possible scenarios of the future evolution of the population, as projections are not predictions. These scenarios take into account recent trends and also the opinions of population experts who were consulted specifically during the development of these projections.
Canada could have63million inhabitants by2073
According to the various projection scenarios, Canada's population, estimated at40.1million in2023, would continue to grow over the coming decades to reach between47.1million and87.2million in2073. According to the medium-growth scenario (M1), the Canadian population would reach62.8million people in2073.
From an average of1.12% over the last30years, the annual population growth rate would gradually decrease to reach0.79% by2072/2073, according to the medium-growth scenario (M1). In comparison, this rate would increase to1.59% according to the high-growth scenario and would decrease to0.07% according to the low-growth scenario.
In all scenarios, migratory increase would be the key driver of population growth in Canada, continuing a trend observed since the beginning of the1990s. Natural increase—that is, the balance of births minus deaths—would play only a marginal role, given the anticipated rise in the number of deaths due to population aging, as well as low fertility, a situation observed in many other countries.
The population aged85and older could triple by2073
The share of persons aged65and older within the total population would increase from18.9% in2023to between21.9% (slow-aging scenario) and32.3% (fast-aging scenario) in2073.
However, the growth in the proportion of persons aged65and older would be less pronounced after2030, when all baby-boomers will have reached or passed the age of65.
The share of children (aged between0and14) within Canada's population has decreased significantly since1962, when it peaked at34.0%. Estimated at15.4% in2023, this share of children in the population would decrease according to all projection scenarios, with the exception of the slow-aging scenario and the high-growth scenario.
The number of persons aged85and older would continue to increase rapidly in the coming years, particularly between2031and2050, a period during which the large baby-boom cohort will reach this age group where the need for healthcare and services are significant. According to the various projection scenarios, the population aged85and older would increase from896,600people in2023to between3.3million (low-growth scenario) and4.3million (high-growth scenario) people in2073.
The average age of Canada's population would reach between42.6years (slow-aging scenario) and50.1years (fast-aging scenario) in2073, up from41.6years in2023.
Population aging in all provinces and territories
If recent trends continue over the long term, the relative weight of the population of the provinces east of Ontario would continue to decline according to all projection scenarios.
Specifically, the populations of Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Quebec would continue to decrease as a share of Canada's total population between2023and2048, according to almost all scenarios. Conversely, the demographic weight of Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia would increase according to all scenarios.
In all projection scenarios, Ontario and Quebec would continue to be the most populous provinces in Canada over the next25years.
The average annual population growth rate would vary considerably among the provinces and territories. Some provinces and territories could see their population size decrease according to certain scenarios. For example, according to the low-growth scenario, the populations of Newfoundland and Labrador and the Northwest Territories would both decrease between2023and2048.
As population aging continues, the share of older adults (aged65and older) in the total population would continue to increase in all provinces and territories in the coming years. The proportion of persons aged85and older would also increase rapidly in all provinces and territories.
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Products
Results of the population projections for Canada (2023to2073) and for provinces and territories (2023to2048) are available in two tables:17-10-0057-01(population counts) and17-10-0058-01(components of population growth). They can also be consulted using a new interactive data visualization tool, Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories: Interactive Dashboard (Catalogue number71-607-X).
A brief analytical document entitled Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories,2023to2073 (Catalogue number91-520-X) is also available.
The publication Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories: Technical Report on Methodology and Assumptions,2023to2073 (Catalogue number91-620-X), that provides information on the methods and assumptions underlying the projections, is also available.
Contact information
For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact us (toll-free 1-800-263-1136; 514-283-8300; infostats@statcan.gc.ca) or Media Relations (statcan.mediahotline-ligneinfomedias.statcan@statcan.gc.ca).
